Are You Not Being Entertained? This Decline of the Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves managed 10 fewer scores from open play than at this stage last season.

A key narrative of the EPL season so far has been the drop of scoring in open-play scenarios and how sides are finding goals increasingly from dead-ball situations instead.

Looking at how goals have been scored to the initial 11 matches last season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and penalties, leading to 13 fewer in total.

If we look at overall statistics, efforts on goal sides are producing reveal an incredible 370 fewer in open play than at this stage previously.

Even with the significant rise in dead-ball scores, records show a mere two extra attempts generated from them outside of penalties, indicating how effective teams are at devising strategies to convert from set-pieces.

Scoring Rates Tell a Story

301 total goals recorded in the first 110 fixtures to date calculates at nearly 2.75 goals per fixture, which if it continued for the whole season would be the smallest for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69).

But just under 200 goals coming in open-play equates to 1.78 each match and is tracking to be the lowest for since 2009-10, from 16 years ago (1.76 average).

That campaign also marks the unique EPL season to see goals scored at a higher rate from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 each match (0.79).

Which Teams Account for This Change?

When it comes to goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced the largest decrease, registering a mere four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than this point the previous campaign.

Apart from Wolves, the Premier League's drop in open-play scoring is largely a trend among London clubs, with five of the capital's seven sides scoring a minimum of five fewer goals from open play than the prior season.

In fairness, this is primarily due to them scoring many goals at the beginning of the previous campaign instead of them really struggling to find the net in open play this season.

At the same time Manchester City have experienced the most significant jump, with almost every one of their 23 scores so far originating in open-play.

Set-Piece Success

Looking at clubs that came up with those that were relegated they took the place of. Play-off champions Sunderland have recorded three more goals in open play than the Saints did in their first 11 games on their way to the drop the previous campaign.

In terms of goals scored from set-pieces (excluding spot-kicks), the Gunners and Chelsea have seen the largest rise, with the two clubs making up for the five fewer goals that they've produced in open-play with the same number from dead-ball chances.

Man United have recorded twice as many goals from set-plays as they managed in the 11 games the previous campaign before their coach took charge, while the Black Cats additionally are more effective at netting than the similar-colored team that went down.

Manchester City seem unaware of the trend about netting additional goals from set-pieces, as they've recorded three fewer than the previous campaign, as have Forest, though that might be down to the change in style they have tried to implement.

League-Wide Trends

Six clubs – the Gunners, Chelsea, Fulham, the Magpies, Spurs and the Hammers – represent the current campaign's top trend-setters by recording fewer scores from open-play and additional from set-plays, while Manchester City are the sole team to defy the pattern up to now by performing the complete reverse.

It remains to be seen to watch if clubs persist to place such emphasis on set-plays as matches continue or if they find again their overall inventiveness and commence scoring increased totals in open play also.

Mary Mcguire
Mary Mcguire

Mikael Voss is a seasoned gambling analyst with over a decade of experience in online casinos, specializing in slot game reviews and betting strategies.