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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

However the latest field is distinctly different. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions fading and recent underperformers improving collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and fun year, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still